How many shopping baskets do 100 Euros cost around the world?

Every four months, the global team at ING look at the relative prices of a basket of goods all around the globe - their measure of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).  The shopping basket consists of 25 products or services including food, non-food consumables, energy and services.  Looking at how many shopping baskets 100 Euros can buy will give us a sense of which local currencies are cheap or expensive.

Using this measure, emerging market (EM) currencies such as Mexican Peso, Indian Rupee, Chinese Renminbi and Polish Zloty look cheap while Brazilian Real and Turkish Lira look expensive.  In addition, Chinese Renminbi is subject to appreciation pressure because of its positive current account plus foreign direct investment balance while Turkish Lira looks even more vulnerable with a negative current account and foreign direct investment balance.

ING also calculated that while in early 2004,  the 100 Euros would buy on average 40% more shopping baskets in EM countries than in the U.S.; currently that difference has shrunk to 20%, indicating the strengthening economies and currencies of EM countries versus the depreciating dollar during this time.

Going forward I still like holding a basket of emerging market currencies versus the USD, especially countries with positive current account fundamentals with rising interest rate trend.